Saturday, July 30, 2011

billion not trillion dollar coins please

A method for the Treasury to print money has been making the rounds. Let's posit that depositing newly minted large denomination coins will directly result in inflation. To the extent that this avoids default, it's a great idea, but it should be conducted based on daily revenue short falls rather than a "trillion dollar coin." By making it clear that the money supply will be expanded as needed, future inflation expectations will be raised. With higher inflation expectations, businesses will start spending some of the crazy-high cash reserves they are sitting on, and unemployment may finally start to fall. Note that it doesn't matter if coin minting scheme actually causes inflation; it only matters that enough executives think it will.

While we are on the topic of inflation, the obvious added benefit is that it will reduce the deficit in real terms.

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